For years, Assad vacillated between endorsing reform and leading a new crackdown. Initially, he had convinced some that he might opt for reform- among them British Prime Minister Tony Blair who invited Assad and his British-born wife to a red carpet reception in London and a banquet with the queen.Read the rest.
Now, however, Blair is convinced that Assad is no longer a partner for the West in reshaping the Middle East. That view is shared by France's President Jacques Chirac who has campaigned to bring Hariri's assassins to justice. In July, Chirac broke diplomatic habits by publicly branding Assad as "an obstacle to peace and stability" in the region.
Why is President Assad taking such a gamble?
He appears to have bought into Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's strategy of "waiting Bush out" as discussed when the two met in Damascus last January. The current Iranian policy is based on the assumption that once Bush is out of office, the US will revert to its traditional policy of accommodating the status quo rather than seeking to change it.
Iran has thrown its support behind Assad by supplying him with cut-price oil, cash gifts worth $400 million, a range of weapons including missiles, and a contingent of Islamic Revolutionary Guards that could, if needed, act as a Praetorian Guard.
Saturday, September 16, 2006
Amir Taheri: "A Mini Cold War is starting in the Middle East"
Taheri is typically very interesting:
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